1282 Curiosità del 1964: la Lindy's law

25.06.2019 00:00

Per ascoltare subito

accetta la profilazione dell'IP

oppure

iscriviti al podcast

Questo e' il podcast probabilmente con piu' errori della storia ...
Scrivetemi per correggermi !
Ecco il link del 1964 https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/1964-goldman.pdf Letta cosi' sembra che l'essere il meno possibili "famosi" e' meglio.
Centellinare la propria presenza.
Interessante ...
Lindy's Law, despite its awesome air of common sense, is more a cautionary fable than an accurate description or prognostic; for, as one might suppose, the factors that determine success or failure for even such simple creatures as comedians are a good deal more complicated than the rule suggests.
In- deed, frequency of appearance may be one of the least important considera- tions, ranking behind ease and origi- nality of invention, competition from rival attractions and the moral and psychological factors of self-confidence and self-acceptance; or so at least the careers of television's greatest indige- nous comics - Sid Caesar and Jonathan Winters - would lead one to believe.
Tuttavia l'effetto e' sconosciuto in Italia con questo nome, tanto che non ci sono articoli italiani.
Ecco da Wikipedia inglese: The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.[1] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time.
In contrast, living creatures and mechanical things follow a bathtub curve where, after "childhood", the mortality rate increases with time.
Because life expectancy is probabilistically derived, a thing may become extinct before its "expected" survival.
In other words, one needs to gauge both the age and "health" of the thing to determine continued survival.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect



Iscriviti

Condividi l'ascolto dell'episodio su Mastodon:
Condividi su Mastodon

Continua l'ascolto del Caffè con:
Feed Rss - Newsletter - Canale Telegram

Cerca